War or special operation?Special military operation of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine (SVO) - official name.
Often they simply call it the Russian-Ukrainian war, because it is simpler, clearer, and because ordinary people are not lawyers. Ukraine carried out a special operation in the Donbass, and we defined it as a war.
According to the UN classification, when there are more than 1000 dead, then it is a war.
What's the difference? If Russia called it a war, then it would be obliged to follow the requirements of the UN for the conduct of war: to make claims and try to peacefully resolve, a declaration of war ...
And if this is not a war, then there are no such requirements. Therefore, after World War II there were hundreds of wars and only a few are called wars.
Only now there are more than 50 wars, and on the territory of the former USSR - 3 wars: Russia-Ukraine, Nagorno-Karabakh, Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan.
Against the warPersonally, I am against any war. War never solved problems, it made the situation more difficult and the solution took longer. Today, the entire Western world for some reason became against the war.
This is not the first and not the last war. But the West is only against this war.
It would be great if the world was so against any war.
More like peace. Every war ends with diplomacy, let them sit for years, negotiate, so long as no one is killed.
MobilizationThe military conflict began in February, and mobilization in Ukraine only in May.
The mobilized arrived in the UK and were trained there until the end of September.
The UK was unable to provide training on its own, so the instructors came from other NATO countries as well as their Australia. Russia tried to avoid mobilization, but could not find enough contractors.
And only after the successful connection of fresh mobilized forces, Russia carried out its mobilization. Hundreds of thousands of Russians subject to mobilization began to leave the country - they sold out tickets for foreign flights, prices soared almost 10 times.
They left the country in cars, huge traffic jams formed, people in line sold or simply abandoned cars, because it was faster to reach the border on foot.
European countries began to close the border for Russians, because such small countries as the Baltics, Finland ... will not cope with such a wave of emigration (they accepted many refugees from the east, then millions of Ukrainians).
And if you do not provide refugees with money or work, you will get a crime. Why didn't Russia block the border itself for the mobilized?
- Wealthy people left, that is, children and relatives of people in power and moneybags.
- A new large wave of migrants will be another heavy burden for Europe, which plays into Russia's hands.
- If Europe closes the border, it will be bad in the eyes of the Russians.
- There will still be enough for the first wave of mobilization of people, and most of those who left will spend their money and return to the 2nd wave of mobilization.
- It's better to let them leave than protest.
The military commissar receives an application - how much to recruit and the required categories.
The only problem is that you need to hand in the summons in person, at home, at the military registration and enlistment office or at a deployed recruiting office (neither on the street, nor by mail, nor by phone). It’s not difficult to jump off here - don’t open the door to anyone, hoot away and quiet down ...
Many got out, some by law (we have a rather long list of reservations), some by acquaintance or for a bribe.
And you need to recruit, so they try those who fell under the arm. Often all in a row.
That's why there are a lot of complaints.
Hence the conclusion - absolutely anyone can be mobilized.
Results of wars
- Vietnam War - transport planes returned to the US full of marijuana and flooded America with drugs.
- Afghanistan - American instructors equipped the Afghans with weapons and taught them how to use them, as a result, Alkaida appeared.
- Iraq - Hussein's army was defeated and fled. But how will they live, on what? So they got together and organized themselves and created the Islamic State.
- 1917 - revolution, Lenin withdraws from participation in the 1st World War, ceding to Germany the territories of western Ukraine and Belarus.
A number of regions of Ukraine ended up on the territory of Poland.
At that time, there was a Christian awakening, people came to God en masse, in the absence of a civil war, the economy developed.
- 1939 - the USSR regains its lost territories.
The West of Ukraine ends up in an aggressive atheistic country, their property is confiscated, they are driven into collective farms.
- 1941 - Germany attacked the USSR and was perceived in the west by Ukraine as a liberator.
Bandera and about 10,000 Ukrainians fought in alliance with Germany against the USSR.
It certainly was not patriotism (love for the motherland), namely hatred of other nations (Poles, Hungarians, Jews, Russians...).
The uniform of this army had a swastika, for which Putin classifies Banderau as a Nazi. but at that time an assessment of Germany's actions had not yet been made and they simply had such a form.
But nationalism justifies Putin's version. Nationalism is still supported by many Ukrainians, including the people and those in power.
Reasons - UkraineThe root cause is the rhetoric of Ukraine.
(I do not give an assessment of Russia's actions, it is clear that if Russia had not attacked, there would have been no casualties, the goal is to understand what became the root cause)
After the Maidan, it became popular to speak not like politicians or diplomats, but to hold meetings.
And a politician should be, like a lawyer, not to make rash statements.
Unfortunately, Ukraine has announced that there will be a NATO base in Sevastopol. What could be Putin's reaction?
Well, you need to think before you speak. In 2020, Ukraine announced its entry into NATO, its desire to become a nuclear power.
And how should Putin have reacted? Observe?
Solid emotional populist chatter. You have to think what you are saying.
ForecastThe main mistake is that the armies of Russia and Ukraine are incorrectly compared.
It is not taken into account that people defend their land much more fiercely than they invade someone else's.
This is the reason for the underestimation of the Ukrainian army. Zelenskiy is making a similar mistake by relying on Western weaponry.
He plans to enter the Crimea. But Russia will fight for Crimea differently than for Donetsk. If Ukraine attacks Russian territory (including Crimea) and succeeds, things could go as far as a nuclear strike.
Today it looks like madness. But the war itself yesterday looked like madness.
There is already a lot of talk about nuclear war as something real, and this is done by the central media.